Monday, October 19, 2015

Is being successful at poker based on luck or skill?


Source: wsj.net
The question arises whether or not poker is based on skill or luck. In some ways it's an easy question to answer. But first, what does it take to be classified as a skilled poker player? Becoming a skilled poker player is an ancient game of skill and strategy. While the initial hand dealt does help determine the outcome of the round, a good poker player can turn a seemingly bad hand into a winner. The strategy lies in the expressions of your opponents and in the cards lying face up on the table. Although it appears the game is solely gambling, there is an immense skill to the game—a skill that is based on betting and reading the bets of other players.
Levitt and Miles, from the University of Chicago, argue that 'state courts that have ruled on whether poker is a game of skill-versus-luck generally have done so in the absence of any statistical evidence'. Using statistics from the 2010 World Series of Poker, they found that 'high skilled' players tended to take home 30 per cent more money than they brought with them, whereas all other players usually lost 15 per cent. This huge percentage difference clearly shows that skill is a huge part of being successful at the table.  
In short, success at poker has much in common with success as an entrepreneur. Ludwig von Mises says it best in Planning for Freedom: “The entrepreneurs are neither perfect nor good in any metaphysical sense. They owe their position exclusively to the fact that they are better fit for the performance of the functions incumbent upon them than other people are. They earn profit not because they are clever in performing their tasks, but because they are more clever or less clumsy than other people are.” Many of times poker is a very mental game. A good player does not play just the odds; he also plays the people. Is a bet of $100 a bluff or a warning that your opponent holds four aces? Is the sweat on the hands of your opponent a result of the air conditioner not working or does it arise from the fact that the guy across the table is playing you for a sucker? It takes time and experience to know the difference, but with anything, the more you practice at something, the better you get.







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